Education

• Studies conducted in Mongolia and Tanzania found strong evidence linking admissions to TVET (Technical and Vocational Education and Training) programs to increased employment and higher earnings for women. A randomized experiment in Mongolia evaluated outcomes over three years of applicants to 10 highly competitive vocational schools, comparing those who applied and were admitted through a lottery to those who were not admitted. The study found that candidates who received admission were 4% more likely to hold a paid job and 9% more likely to stay longer in those jobs compared to those who were not admitted. The evidence showed that, women had significantly higher earnings compared to their male counterparts, which resonated with a similar study conducted in Tanzania, estimating the gender differential effect of TVET programs. Using the 2014 Integrated Labor Force Survey data, the latter paper found that, while TVET training significantly improved the likelihood of employment and earnings for both men and women, the returns were higher for women in terms of increased access to competitive jobs and earnings. These studies highlight the role of TVET in increasing access to meaningful employment, economic mobility, and bridging the gender gap that exists in many emerging markets. (Field, E. et al., 2019; Joseph C. et al., 2019)

• Vouchers for private and vocational schools could have lasting education advancement and labor market gains in Colombia. The authors of the study analyzed long-run benefits to individuals who received vouchers through a lottery. The study reveals that students who won vouchers were 17% more likely to complete secondary school on time, compared to the otherwise on-schedule completion rate of 45.2%. The study also reports a 37% increase in enrollment rate and a 2.4% increase in the likelihood of completing tertiary education. Regarding income effects, voucher winners gained an additional $196 over the average annual earnings of those who did not win the lottery, and winners and were 6% more likely to enter the middle class. (Bettinger, E. et al., 2019)

• A study of 126 countries over 50 years highlights key trends concerning gender gaps in education. A paper published by the Centre for Global Development studied the trends in achieving gender equality in education, from 1960 to 2010. Four key trends that characterized women's education were: i) in every country studied, the number of educated women increased in the past 50 years – on average, an adult woman had 7.7 years of schooling in 2010 compared to 2.6 years in 1960; ii) men are still more educated than women in most countries – the study found 1.73 uneducated women for every uneducated man across all sample countries; iii) in regions that had low levels of education in the 1960s—such as Sub Saharan Africa—the gender gap in education widened from -0.72 years in 1960 to -1.22 years in 1985 and later improved to -0.90 years in 2010 as enrollment for girls increased, indicating that boys education was prioritized first in these countries; and iv) gender gaps in educational attainment reduced faster in countries with high male education, such as Israel and Japan, where gender gaps disappeared in 2010. (Evans, D. et al., 2020)

Energy

• Wood Mackenzie U.S. Energy Storage Monitor predicts a 737% increase in deployed megawatt-hours of energy storage over the next five years. While in 2018 the market was split between front-of-the-meter (utility) and back-of-the-meter (residential and non- residential) projects, the report forecasts faster growth for front-of-the-meter projects over the next six years as large storage deployments come online between 2020 to 2024. New storage will contribute to lower emissions from generation, especially during peak demand, as well as resiliency during extreme events such as the California wildfires. (Wood Mackenzie, 2019)

• An NIH study estimates health benefits of reducing particulate matter emissions (PM_2.5) from multiple mobile source emissions. The study monetized health benefits of preventing emissions from combustion sources. The authors calculate the value of reduced mortality and morbidity associated with reductions in gas and diesel engine emissions, drawing on extensive empirical data on particulate sources. Consumer cars and motorcycles offer the highest health benefits, worth up to $700,000 per ton of PM_2.5 pollution diverted. Other sources that yield large per-ton benefits include aircraft ($440,000) and commercial lawn and garden equipment ($630,000). The analysis, which covers 16 particulate sources for both eastern and western U.S. regions, will enable a more precise understanding of the economic value of adverse health impacts associated with emissions. Currently, the EPA estimates that replacing engines can reduce emissions by about 0.2 tons per engine and provide long-term health benefits of more than $100,000 from replacing a single engine. (Wolfe, P. et al., 2019)

• The cost of coal extends beyond greenhouse gas emissions to include damage to health and agricultural outcomes, according to new study in Nature Sustainability. Linking data from coal plants to data from NASA and the EPA, the author examined environmental changes near coal plants that were shut down and those that came online between 2005 and 2016. The author finds that shutting down coal plants is associated with a 0.9% reduction in the overall mortality rate and a 7.2%, 6.3%, and 4% increase in corn, soybean, and wheat crop yields respectively, while controlling for location and time variant factors. (Burney, J., 2020)

Financial Services

• Different studies find promising results from using alternative sources of information for credit risk prediction and repayment, which could expand access to credit. Studies show that the use of alternative sources of data has enabled traditionally subprime borrowers to enter better loan grades and access lower-priced credit. For instance, in the absence of a financial history and reliable credit scores, cash flow variables have been found to be predictive of credit risk and loan performance for a heterogeneous set of providers, populations, and products. Similarly, models using mobile phone data have been predictive of default for individuals with poor or no financial histories and have performed well against models using credit bureau information. (FinRegLab, 2019; Björkegren, D. et al., 2019; San Pedro, J., 2015; Jagtiani, J. et al., 2018)

• Several studies find that unmet demand is a driver for Fintech activity. In China, Fintech credit was found to mitigate supply frictions—such as a large geographic distance between borrowers and the nearest bank branch—and to allow firms with lower credit scores to access credit. In the U.S., research on aggregate peer-to-peer lending found that it operated as a substitute for bank lending in terms of serving infra-marginal bank borrowers. Another study focusing specifically on the LendingClub found that the company had penetrated areas with fewer bank branches per capita and areas where the local economy was not performing well. In Germany, Fintech credit was found to serve a slice of the consumer credit market neglected by banks, namely high risk and small-sized loans. A study in Argentina found a similar pattern: 35% of the small borrowers from Mercado Libre, a big tech e-commerce platform, were found to be otherwise ineligible for bank credit based on their credit bureau scores. (Hau, H. et al., 2018; Tang, H., 2019; Jagtiani, J. et al., 2018; De Roure, C. et al., 2016; Frost, J. et al., 2019)

Food and Agriculture

• Fishery by-products and reduced food waste could meet the increasing demand for omega-3 fatty acids. A study in Nature Foods found that the current supply of EPA and DHA acids (i.e., long-chain omega-3 fatty acids) for human consumption only meets 30% of global demand. This gap has grown two-fold since it was last reported in 2015. The majority of omega-3 fatty acids are sourced from finite marine fisheries despite research into alternatives such as microalgal oils and genetically modified plant oils. Using system analysis, the authors suggest increased sourcing from fishery by-products through centralized processing, and reduced food waste through better fishery management, could meet this demand. (Glencross, B., 2020)
• Changing the language used to describe plant-based foods can help increase sales. The Better Buying Lab at the World Resource Institute identified four kinds of language to avoid and three to embrace in order to help the food industry increase the appeal of plant-based food. The two-year long study found that terms such as ‘meat-free’, ‘vegan’, ‘vegetarian’, and ‘health restrictive’ can suppress the sales for plant-based foods, while highlighting the origin, flavor, and look and feel of the dish can boost mainstream consumers’ appetite for plant-rich foods. (Wise, J. et al., 2019)
• Climate models published over the past five decades accurately projected global warming. A recent study published by NASA evaluated the performance of 17 climate models built between 1970 and 2007 that projected future global mean surface temperature changes. Climate models rely on accurate modelling of climate physics and taking accurate assumptions around future CO­₂ emissions and other climate drivers. Using two evaluation methods (change in temperature vs time and change in temperature vs change in radiating force), the authors found that majority of model projections (10 out of 17) show consistent results with observations under both metrics, while four showed more and three predicted lesser warming. The findings could contribute towards increasing public confidence in global warming predictions. (Hausfather, Z. et al, 2020)

Healthcare

• The American Cancer Society records the largest single-year drop in U.S. cancer mortality. Cancer mortality in the U.S. decreased by 29% from 1991 to 2017; 2016 to 2017 was characterized by the largest single-year drop recorded, at 2.2%. The 26-year decline in overall cancer deaths was due to reductions in death rates in the four most common cancer types—lung, colorectal, breast, and prostate—and is attributed to advances in treatments such as immunotherapy drugs and targeted therapies. Specifically, the reduction in lung cancer deaths was attributed to less smoking and early detection. The American Cancer Society estimates that 2.9M cancer-related deaths have been avoided since 1991, when mortality rates were at their highest. (American Cancer Society, 2020)

• New RCT finds specialized healthcare management intervention had no significant effect on readmissions. The RCT authors study the Camden Coalition of Health Providers, a program designed to manage the health spending of superutilizers (patients with very high use of health care services). The study focuses on readmissions rates of superutilizers within 180 days after discharge and randomly assigned 800 patients to the Coalition’s care-transition program (a team of nurses, social workers, and community health workers who coordinate outpatient care) or to usual care. However, results from the RCT, published in the New England Journal of Medicine, reported no significant differences in readmission rates among those who received specialized care versus standard care. (Finkelstein, A. et al., 2020)

• A comprehensive study from the Lancet measures universal health coverage (UHC) around the world and finds greater coverage in higher income countries, with two notable exceptions. Researchers constructed a UHC index that incorporated indicators related to financial protection against catastrophic expenses, as well as service coverage for key treatment areas, highlighting the importance of using both types of indicators to assess a country’s performance in achieving UHC. Unsurprisingly, higher income countries had higher UHC indices. However, notable exceptions include Zimbabwe (a low-income country), which scored higher than several lower-middle-income countries, and Mongolia (a lower-middle-income country), which scored higher than several upper-middle income countries. (Wagstaff, A. et al., 2019)

Infrastructure

• A revised NBER working paper resolves complications from traffic congestion to reveal outsize returns to highway construction. Highway construction is subject to the “induced demand” paradox: no matter how much capacity is added, traffic seems to stay the same, since demand shifts to accommodate new capacity. Induced demand has been used as an argument against expanding infrastructure. Taking induced demand into account, the authors develop a model of traffic flow using data on U.S. highway volume. They find that expanding select routes could produce a social welfare benefit (derived from trade along the routes) of 10-100x constructions costs, even after accounting for changes due to induced demand. The largest returns are for highways between large economic centers like White Plains, NY-Greenburgh, NY (135x social return) but also in places with few alternative routes like Center, IN-Indianapolis, IN (100x). (Allen, T. et al., 2019)

• A World Bank research paper finds that clean water reduces the risk of growth stunting by at least 6% in Bangladeshi children below the age of five. Estimates from a cross-sectional, nationally representative survey from Bangladesh between 2012-2013 show exposure to water that is highly contaminated with E. coli. is associated with a 6-9% increased risk of stunting compared to exposure to water with low to medium contamination levels. Results are robust to controlling for observable characteristics using self-reported survey data, which included water quality testing. Water quality improvement from lower levels of E. coli. is a relatively new impact pathway with non-linear effects, meaning that small improvements in water quality may have big impacts. (Joseph, G. et al., 2019)

Disclaimer:  Views presented in the linked articles are the author’s own and not representative of Y Analytics. For informational purposes only, not intended as investment advice. Content may not be comprehensive of all timely research within each sector.  Text is often drawn directly from cited sources.